Small Business Finance :: News
SHARE

Share this news item!

Australia's Path Out of Recession: A Long Road Ahead

Australia's Path Out of Recession: A Long Road Ahead

Australia's Path Out of Recession: A Long Road Ahead?w=400
Australia is currently navigating its way out of what has been called the longest recession on record.
The nation has seen six consecutive quarters of declining per capita gross domestic product, indicating a sustained period of economic downturn.

A significant contributor to this decline has been the household sector. By the second quarter of 2024, there was a notable 2.4% reduction in real per capita household consumption from its peak level.

Alarmingly, real per capita household disposable income experienced an even steeper drop, plunging by approximately 8%, as shown in national accounts data. This marks the largest recorded decrease in Australia’s history.

In its latest economic outlook, encapsulated in the Red Book for October, Westpac predicts a slow recovery process from this recession. They highlight the harsh fall in per capita disposable income, which their analysis pegs at a dramatic 10% drop.

According to Westpac, “The combined effect of rising income tax payments, higher interest and the surge in inflation has produced a 4.8% drop in aggregate terms since Sep 2021 and an eye-watering 10% plunge in per capita terms.”

Westpac draws a stark comparison to the early 1990s recession, stating, “That is about double the size of the decline seen during the recession in the early-1990s (when the average mortgage interest rate was 15% and the unemployment rate spiked 4ppts on its way to an eventual peak of over 11%).”

There is a slightly improving consumer mood, bolstered by tax cuts and other governmental aid, and an optimistic shift in expectations for interest rates. “The consumer mood has become considerably less bleak, buoyed on the one hand by the additional cash in hand as tax cuts and other support measures flow through, and on the other by turning expectations for interest rates.”

Commenting on consumer sentiment, Westpac notes, “The most striking sentiment shift over the last three months has again been around consumer expectations for interest rates. The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Mortgage Rate Expectations Index fell by a third between July and October.”

Despite these modest shifts in consumer sentiment, Westpac cautions that full economic recovery may proceed at a gradual pace. “The medium-term recovery process looks likely to be a slow one,” they warn.

Factors contributing to this sluggish recovery include a gentle easing cycle by the Reserve Bank of Australia, the slow rebound of household disposable incomes, and reduced use of savings reserves accrued during the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, deceleration in population growth poses another challenge.

Ultimately, Westpac concludes that despite some encouraging developments, the path to consumer recovery remains extensive. “Despite some more promising signs, the consumer recovery still has a long way to go.”

These insights and forecasts, grounded in Westpac’s research and national data, highlight the complex road to recovery facing Australia today, encouraging consumers and policymakers alike to brace for a protracted economic landscape.

Published:Friday, 1st Nov 2024
Source: Paige Estritori

Share this news item:

Finance News

AI in Financial Planning: Unlocking Potential with Prudence AI in Financial Planning: Unlocking Potential with Prudence
21 Nov 2024: Paige Estritori

Artificial Intelligence (AI) has rapidly become a focal point in modern financial planning, offering the potential to transform how advisers interact with clients. By providing automated solutions for routine tasks and analyzing vast data sets, AI promises increased efficiency and more personalized financial recommendations. - read more
Financial Advisory Expansion: Balancing Growth and Regulatory Challenges Financial Advisory Expansion: Balancing Growth and Regulatory Challenges
20 Nov 2024: Paige Estritori

The financial advisory sector in Australia is poised for significant expansion, with the potential to extend advisory services to an additional 650,000 clients. This promising development hinges on resolving existing regulatory barriers. A detailed analysis by Empower Business Advisory, sponsored by Colonial First State, underlines this potential shift in the industry landscape. - read more


Business Loans Articles

Unlock Growth with Smart Leasing: A Small Business Owner's Guide Unlock Growth with Smart Leasing: A Small Business Owner's Guide
Every small business owner knows that having the right equipment is crucial for success. Whether it's the latest tech for your IT company or heavy machinery for construction, equipment can propel your business to new heights. But, for many Australian entrepreneurs, the upfront cost of these tools can be a major hurdle. - read more
Unveiling the Best Franchise Funding Strategies for Australian Entrepreneurs Unveiling the Best Franchise Funding Strategies for Australian Entrepreneurs
Australia's franchise sector is a dynamic and significant element of the national economy, offering a myriad of opportunities for aspiring entrepreneurs. With an array of brands stretching from fast food to retail stores, the franchise landscape in Australia presents a viable path for business ownership under an established model. However, the success of a franchise operation is not solely based on choosing a recognizable brand; it also hinges on deploying the right financial strategies. - read more
Avoid the Common Pitfalls: Expert Advice on Startup Loan Applications in Australia Avoid the Common Pitfalls: Expert Advice on Startup Loan Applications in Australia
Embarking on a startup journey is an exhilarating challenge that requires not just a brilliant idea, but a solid foundation of financial support to turn that idea into reality. Finding the right funding can be a make-or-break moment for many startups. Here, preparation is more than just a good practice; it's the backbone of any successful loan application. - read more
Creative Strategies to Fund Your Franchise Without Breaking the Bank Creative Strategies to Fund Your Franchise Without Breaking the Bank
Embarking on a franchise venture holds the promise of a prosperous future, but all too often, prospective franchisees are confronted with the substantial challenge of securing adequate funding to power their entrepreneurial dreams. With traditional financing routes frequently requiring significant up-front capital, the hurdle of funding becomes a formidable barrier for many. It is for this very reason that we must shine a spotlight on the validity of creative funding strategies that exist outside the conventional banking framework. - read more


Need Help Finding a Loan?
Loan Amount:
Postcode:

All finance quotes are provided free (via our secure server) and without obligation.
We respect your privacy.

Knowledgebase
Debt Consolidation:
Taking advantage of lower interest rates that may be available by the grouping of multiple loans into one, lower interest rate loan.